Friday, 11 November 2011

Brace yourself: India will do badly... but better than most countries

So car sales last quarter were down 24% in October, hitting an 11-year low, according to SIAM (the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers)?

And the October trade gap was the widest in four years due to exports slowing sharply amid weakening global demand, while import payments surged due to high crude oil prices and a rise in coal imports?

Just two signs of the difficulties facing the Indian economy - about which i warned at the start of the current crisis in 2008; thank God, it has taken 3 years to hit us - so we should have been well prepared. Are we?

However, be of good cheer: in the short to medium term, we will be hit even more by the current crisis, but we will do less badly than almost all other countries (except the US and the UK - I have an open mind about the Euro). In all these cases, the good news is no thanks to the national governments involved. Rather it is global forces at play.

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