Thursday, 24 April 2014

So who will run India after the National Election results are announced next month?

People keep asking me ...!

As if I know...!

The fact is that, at present, it is impossible to anticipate the upshot: all the prognostications in Indian and foreign media are either wishes or imaginations – we must remember that Indian elections have usually upset all commentators, observers, forecasters, and psephologists.

However, as I am as foolish as any other person, I will venture my opinion too!

Here are the 5 possible outcomes, with my probabilities quantified:

(a) Modi becomes PM with an outright majority: 1%

(b) Modi becomes PM though as a result of an alliance with other parties: 5%

(c) A BJP-led alliance with someone other than Modi as PM 45%

(d) A non-BJP coalition comes to power 48%

(e) A party other than BJP wins an outright majority 1%

Any assignment of probabilities is completely artificial of course.

But this gives you a feeling for my reading of the national mood.

And you see that the biggest probability is that India will be run by a non-BJP coalition of parties.

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