So who will run India after the National Election results are announced next month?
People keep asking me ...!
As if I know...!
The fact is that, at present, it is impossible to anticipate the upshot: all the prognostications in Indian and foreign media are either wishes or imaginations – we must remember that Indian elections have usually upset all commentators, observers, forecasters, and psephologists.
However, as I am as foolish as any other person, I will venture my opinion too!
Here are the 5 possible outcomes, with my probabilities quantified:
(a) Modi becomes PM with an outright majority: 1%
(b) Modi becomes PM though as a result of an alliance with other parties: 5%
(c) A BJP-led alliance with someone other than Modi as PM 45%
(d) A non-BJP coalition comes to power 48%
(e) A party other than BJP wins an outright majority 1%
Any assignment of probabilities is completely artificial of course.
But this gives you a feeling for my reading of the national mood.
And you see that the biggest probability is that India will be run by a non-BJP coalition of parties.
Born and brought up in Delhi, but from the age of 3 to the age of 8 in Amritsar and started school on holiday in Srinagar. Leaving Amritsar, at school for a year in Solan. Otherwise in Delhi, studying at J. D. Tytler School and Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan, then at St Stephen's College, where I eventually taught for 3 years. Then 3 years at North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong. Political exile from India in 1976. Lived/studied/worked in Scotland for 3 years, England for 16 years and Switzerland since then.